Climate perception and adaptability in rural and urban settlements on the Tosagua canton (Manabí - Ecuador)

Abstract

This study evaluates climate change perception and adaptability in the settlements of Tosagua, Manabí, Ecuador, highlighting the region's extreme vulnerability, exacerbated by a lack of risk awareness, shortcomings in territorial planning, and limited adaptive capacity. Using a non-experimental approach encompassing exploratory, descriptive, and analytical methods, climate data from 2014 to 2024 were collected from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. Four structured surveys were administered to a sample of 398 participants. A vulnerability matrix, considering exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability variables, was used to integrate Ecosystem-Based Adaptation into the proposed local strategies, tailored to urban and rural contexts. The results show that 52% of the population is female, with 27% aged between 20 and 29 years. Ninety-two percent reported being aware of climate change, although only 36% perceived an adaptive capacity. Vulnerability is exacerbated by deficiencies in sanitation (63%), increasing the risk of flooding, identified by 92% of respondents. Adaptation priorities focus on public health (58%) and infrastructure improvement (57%), while nature-based solutions, such as shading, received lower ratings (44%). In conclusion, this indicates an urgent need to strengthen practical education on climate change adaptation and social and structural resilience in the region.