Climatic variability and its impact on coconut production in Rocafuerte canton, Ecuador

Abstract

The climatic variability significantly impacts agricultural sustainability and food security. This study aimed to evaluate climate variability and its relationship with coconut production in the canton of Strong Rock. The production system was analyzed using an exploratory approach with stratified random sampling, dividing the canton into two strata: the upper area "El Cardón" and the lower area "El Pasaje". Seven production parameters were analyzed through surveys, and two meteorological stations were installed, one in each zone. Daily data on precipitation, temperature, humidity, and evapotranspiration were collected for six months (January – June 2024) and statistically analyzed using Pearson correlation. The data were compared with NASA's 12-year historical records starting in 2010. The most produced variety was manion, yielding 846.1 kg/m² in "El Cardón" and 297.8 kg/m² in "El Pasaje." Evapotranspiration and temperature had a high positive correlation with coconut production (0.78 in "El Cardón" and 0.82 in "El Pasaje"), while humidity and precipitation had a low negative correlation. The meteorological data closely matched NASA's historical values for June. The study shows that climatic variability affects coconut production parameters related to flowering and fruiting in the studied areas.