Soft law in hard times: Tariff volatility and trade innovation in asean

Abstract

This paper analyses how the weaponisation of trade, such as the renewed unilateral tariffs in 2025, reshapes the governance setting for trade-dependent regions. Using ASEAN as a case study, we argue that the region’s reliance on soft law is a deliberate institutional strategy. We examine ASEAN’s structural exposure through global value chains and its fragmented resilience across member states. We then assess how its hybrid legal architecture combines treaty-based obligations with soft-law implementation. We characterise that ASEAN manages external shocks through three mechanisms: proceduralising volatility into coordinated consultation, enabling differentiated coordination to avoid legal deadlock, and sequencing legal development through gradual layering of soft and hard governance. Comparatively, we show that ASEAN represents a distinct model of regional legal ordering positioned between European Union-style of supranational enforcement and APEC-style of voluntarism.